Dan Cleary

McCain Moves into Lead 48-47 in One Day Polling

That's the current headline on Drudge:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

A good sign. A very good sign.

Friday Night Videos

#1 - Fred Thompson.

#2 - 11 million views and counting:

#3 - Peace Through Strength

KCRW's Left, Right, and Center - 10/31/08

I guess Tony Blankley's chances of riding shotgun on the Obama plane just went from slim to none.

New Threshold for Obama Tax Cuts: $120k

Bill Richardson has picked up where Joe Biden left off - apparently, now it is taxpayers making under $120k who are eligible for tax relief:

Via Breitbart.

Collinearity and the Level of Confidence in the Polls

The Real Clear Politics average currently has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by 6.4 points, and headed towards a 353-185 victory in the Electoral College.

I have a hunch the race is closer than that.

But can we prove it? Wizbang's DJ Drummond takes a crack at it, from a somewhat unconventional angle:

The election is coming to a close, or at least we hope so (thank you Al Gore for proving that sometimes the nightmare just continues). All along, I have been saying that the poll numbers are invalid on their own standards, and once again I found another reason to repeat that claim: The state polls contradict many of the national polls.

The claim made by those who like the polls, has generally run along the lines that they cannot all be wrong, and that a consensus of the polls should be trusted. I hardly agree, because of a factor in statistics known as collinearity. Here's the formal definition from statistics.com: "In regression analysis, collinearity of two variables means that strong correlation exists between them, making it difficult or impossible to estimate their individual regression coefficients reliably."

That should whet your appetite - read the rest here. Don't be scared off by the statistical jargon. Hang in there until the end - Drummond's conclusion is very interesting.

The Evan-Novak Political Report Predictions Are In

The long-awaited Evans-Novak Political Report predictions are in. While there are some positive takeaways here for McCain - enough, I think, that it is reasonable to say he still has a fighting chance on Election Day - the forecast otherwise is decidedly grim for Republicans:

Outlook

1. Sen. Barack Obama is poised to be the nation's first black president, winning by a narrow margin, and enjoying very large Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress--but short of 60 seats in the Senate.

2. House Republicans face another slaughter. Democrats will make double-digit net gains, possibly pushing 30 seats. Many GOP incumbents are in danger, and Democrats are dominating in the open seats.

3. In the Senate, Democrats start with a gain of 4 seats, with another 7 GOP-held seats in play. We predict 58 or 59 Senate Democrats in the next Congress, but 60 is within reach.

4. Despite all this bad news, Sen. John McCain is not facing a blowout. Barring a last-minute Obama surge, McCain will post respectable numbers in the popular vote and the Electoral College. A McCain victory is not out of the question.

Read the whole thing.

Is There a Conservative Case for Obama?

I don't think so, and neither does Powerline's Paul Mirengoff:

One can be a conservative and sit this election out (though that would be a bad decision). One can also be a conservative and vote for Bob Barr (also a bad decision). But I don't see how one can be a conservative, as that term is currently understood in common political discourse, and vote for a candidate who, according to the non-partisan National Journal, has the most liberal voting record in the Senate.

An Obama administration would almost certainly be to the left of the Clinton administration. It might well be to the left of any U.S. administration ever. A person who votes to bring on that administration may be admirable in many respects. He or she may have been a conservative recently. He or she may become a conservative soon, and should be welcome in that event. But if the term "conservative" is given its ordinary, contemporary meaning, how can he or she be considered a conservative now?

It's an excellent point, and I'd even go a step further. "Moderates" are free to vote for Obama as well, but those who do shall be known as liberals forthwith.

McCain for President, Part II

Charles Krauthammer expounds on his endorsement last week of John McCain:

[John McCain would give us] an eclectic, moderate, generally centrist agenda in a guy almost congenitally given to bipartisanship.

Obama, on the other hand, talks less and less about bipartisanship, his calling card during his earlier messianic stage. He does not need to. If he wins, he will have large Democratic majorities in both houses. And unlike 1992, Obama is no Clinton centrist.

What will you get?

(1) Card check, meaning the abolition of the secret ballot in the certification of unions in the workplace. Large men will come to your house at night and ask you to sign a card supporting a union. You will sign.

(2) The so-called Fairness Doctrine -- a project of Nancy Pelosi and leading Democratic senators -- a Hugo Chavez-style travesty designed to abolish conservative talk radio.

(3) Judges who go beyond even the constitutional creativity we expect from Democratic appointees. Judges chosen according to Obama's publicly declared criterion: "empathy" for the "poor or African-American or gay or disabled or old" -- in a legal system historically predicated on the idea of justice entirely blind to one's station in life.

(4) An unprecedented expansion of government power. Yes, I know. It has already happened. A conservative government has already partially nationalized the mortgage industry, the insurance industry and nine of the largest U.S. banks.

Read the whole thing.

Leading the Sheeple Astray

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Rasmussen: McCain Trusted More on Taxes and Economy

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Via Flopping Aces and Wizbang.

McCain Leading in Florida Early Voting Poll

Kim Priestap at Wizbang reports that an LA Times/Bloomberg poll of those who voted early in Florida has McCain ahead of Obama 49-45%, even though more Democrats voted than Republicans.

Isn't that interesting? Perhaps McCain's appeal to moderate voters in both parties may yet save him.